Down The Stretch They Come!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As pointed out yesterday, there will be some excitement at the Justice household tomorrow afternoon when the ponies clear the starting gate at Churchill Downs.

I have bet on this race for about the last ten years. I have not really been successful. I won with Real Quiet in ’98 and made some money on a boxed exacta with Funny Cide and Empire Maker in 2003 (for those of you unfamiliar with these terms, try this link). I have a few rules for the bets and here they are:

1. No favorites: Sooner or later this will burn me, but favorites do not perform well in the Derby. Whoever the favorite horse is stay away.
2. Experienced Jockeys: This doesn’t mean that the jockey has to have won the Derby before, but it does mean that the jockey should have a good history. Of course, most of the jockeys competing tomorrow will be at the top of their game because crappy jockeys don’t get rides in the Derby. So, look at the jockey’s record, particularly in the Derby (if you can find it), in a large field (like the Derby will be), and on the horse he/she is riding.
3. Ignore breeding and the trainer: Sure guys like Baffert and D. Wayne are great trainers, but horses are not machines, once a horse learns to race, it is up to the horse to run, not the trainer. Trainers set the schedule for the horse to race and practice, but remember, the horse is the most important thing. As for breeding, if you have enough time on your hands to figure out how breeding will play into the Derby, please go find your local Gamblers’ Anonymous chapter.
4. Read a little from the experts: Not for picks, because your gut is usually the best thing for you to follow, but you want to know what kind of race should occur. Take last year for example, because of the speed of Spanish Chestnut, everyone expected the pace at the start to be incredible. This meant that most of the speed horses would be gone by the final turn and it would be left to the closers or stalkers to win. Because of the very fast past, most of the stalkers wore themselves out and Giacomo, a closer, won the race. While Giacomo was a longshot to win last year, it was simply because the chalk was on better known closers. Either way, you could get narrow down the list of horses that were possible winners. (Oh and remember to look at the weather reports, a muddy track will slow the race down)
5. Vary up your bets: Just like the stock market, a little diversification will help. You can lay straight bets all day if you want, but try an exacta or trifecta. Boxing them will increase your odds. If you want to get super exotic, try a daily double and just guess on a horse in one of the other races. Really, like all gambling, the purpose shouldn’t be to make money because you will not win money gambling. No, the purpose should be to have a little fun and create a little excitement for yourself.

As for yours truly, here is how I am following my rules:

The favorite is Brother Derek at 3-1, close behind are Barbaro and Lawyer Ron at 4-1. Brother Derek is out for me.

The jockey lineup is Rafeal Bejarano on Point Determined, Garrett Gomez on Bob and John, Corey Nakatani on A.P. Warrior, Kent Desormeaux on Sweetnorthernsaint, and John McKee on Lawyer Ron. Bejarano has one previous mount in the Derby, he finished 8th on Andromeda's Hero in 2005. Garrett Gomez has been around for a long time, but only has two Derby starts and has never finished in the money (1994 - Southern Rhythm, 1995 - Dazzling Falls). Corey Nakatani has had 10 rides at Churchill Downs for the Derby. He has finished in the money twice in 1991 on Green Alligator and in 1998 on Halory Hunter. Kent Desormeaux is a two time Derby winner (1998 - Real Quiet, 2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus), has a third place finish, and three fifth place finishes. Finally, John McKee is making his third start on Saturday. He has two 13th place finishes in the last two years. Obviously, the most successful jockey is Desormeaux. However, Corey Nakatani has a lot of experience with a few instances of coming close to winning.

The experts are predicting a very frenetic pace at the beginning with Sinister Minister, Sharp Humor, and Keyed Entry probably leading the pack at the half way point. However, I don’t think the pace will be near as fast as last year, which means that a stalker is a likely candidate.

So where does that leave me? Well, I’m going with Sweetnorthernsaint. I like Kent Desormeaux, he usually gets the best out of horse and should get a good ride around the track. Plus, the horse has not been run that much and has done well in all his races. In the end this is a guessing game, it always is, but you go with your gut and mine says, Sweetnorthernsaint.

As for the bets, I’m going with win bets on Sweethnorthernsaint and Lawyer Ron. I will also play two box trifectas. The first trifecta will be Lawyer Ron, Point Determined, and A.P. Warrior. The second trifecta will be A.P. Warrior, Sweethnorthernsaint, and Lawyer Ron.