And the Nominees Are.....

Okay, so the previews are done. What does it all mean? How about some freakin’ predictions?

Well first I should probably list my criteria for what I think it takes to win the SEC.

Solid Quarterback Play: Alabama and Vandy last year, Auburn in 2004, Ole Miss in 2003, LSU in 2001, all these teams shared a common theme, senior quarterbacks. Not all of them reached the SEC title game, but all had significant years in their own contexts. If you look at the 14 championship games that have been played, eight times the winner had a senior quarterback (I’m including LSU in 2001 because of Rohan Davey). Of the 28 teams that have made it to Atlanta, 12 have had senior quarterbacks.

Only Florida has an experienced senior at quarterback this year. Auburn, Arkansas (unless they are batshit crazy and start Mustain), LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Kentucky all have experienced juniors or sophmores.

Stout Defense: This may be my recent memory biasing actual history (it wouldn’t be the first time), but in a league that has always been defensively oriented, a stout defense is a necessity if you expect to win much. Last year both LSU and Georgia were in the Top 5 in defense in the SEC and Auburn (2004) and LSU (2003) led the conference in defense as well.

It is difficult to determine who will have a good defense at the beginning of the year. I think for now I have to go with history and returning players. In the future, I’ll examine points given up per game, rushing defense, and opponents third down percentage.

Given their histories, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and Tennessee should have strong defenses. Due to the talent level on defense, I’ll add Florida, Georgia, and Arkansas.

Good Offensive Line Play: A good line doesn’t mean the line with the most guys who will play in the NFL. Good offensive lines are cohesive units that work together and must compensate for each individual’s deficiencies. Solid line play reveals itself in rushing yardage per game and third down conversions. Good rushing teams create shorter second and third down situations allowing the offensive coordinator to dictate to the defense. Also, solid rushing teams eat up clock and limit the offensive chances of their opponents. Ahhh, yes, poetry in motion.

Similar to strong defensive play, you have to go with history and returning talent on this one. My guess on who will have the strong offensive lines this year would have to include the usual suspects, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, as well as Arkansas and LSU

Talent: My perception is that there is very little difference in the talent at each of the top six programs in the SEC (Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee). However, each year the starters that a particular school has will be better than others. Take Auburn in 2004, Tennessee when Peyton was there, or LSU in 2003. Those schools had plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, guys that now play in the NFL. And make no mistake special talents like Peyton, Shaun Alexander, David Pollack, and Cadillac Williams make the difference between getting to and winning in Atlanta.

Who has the best talent this year? This is probably the toughest item to predict because again there is little difference in the top 6 teams. I would argue that Tennessee and LSU have the most talent in their two deep. However, the other four are not far behind, and let’s not forget that Arkansas has Darren McFadden who will probably be selected in the first round in April.

Coaching: Whether the coach is a CEO type or an X’s and O’s type, great coaches make a lot of the other things on this list irrelevant. And one has to include the assistant coaches in this as well. The best case recently was Auburn in 2004. The year before with essentially the same players, Auburn’s offense was atrocious. One year later with a new offensive coordinator, they looked like the second coming of Coryell’s San Diego teams. Coaches develop schemes and call plays and alignments. Coaches get players ready to play.

So who has the best coaches in the SEC? If you went with head coaches, you have to put Spurrier at the top of the list, followed by a close group of Fulmer, Tuberville, and Richt. It is a little early to say how Miles and Meyer will stack up.

If you go with coaching staffs, I think Auburn and Georgia are perhaps the strongest, followed closely by Tennessee, and Alabama. Again, it’s too early to tell on Florida and LSU.

Schedule: Away games in the SEC are a precarious proposition. Even playing a clearly inferior opponent in their home stadium can be dangerous at times. Too many tough away games can ruin an otherwise promising season. LSU last year had most of their toughest games at home, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, and Arkansas. Likewise Georgia played a very nice home schedule with South Carolina, Arkansas, and Auburn making visits to Athens.

This year, the favorable schedules belong to Auburn (LSU, Arkansas, Florida, and Georgia), Arkansas (Alabama, Tennessee, and LSU), and Tennessee (Florida, Alabama, and LSU). Florida and Georgia are a mixed bag. Georgia splits its tough games between being home and away. Florida has three tough games at home or at a neutral site (LSU, Alabama, and Georgia), but plays Alabama, LSU, Auburn, and Georgia during a five week stretch.

Luck: Who can forget Clint Stoener’s fumble against Tennessee in 1998? Alabama’s screen pass in the closing seconds of the 1997 Iron Bowl that put Auburn into the Championship game? Or how about LSU and Auburn trading kicking luck last year and in 2004? LSU committing a penalty to give Auburn another try at an extra point in 2004 and Auburn missing four (or was it five, I hate kickers) field goals last year.

A little luck makes the difference. Of course, in each case the team who received the lucky bounce had to make something out of it to win the game. So luck is great, but great teams make the most of their chances.

Who will get the big breaks this year?


PREDICTIONS!!!!! OOOHHHHH…….AAHHHH!!!!! SHINY!

Championship Game Contenders: Auburn, LSU, Florida, and Tennessee
Close to Atlanta, but Just Shy: Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina
Bowl Game: Alabama, Kentucky, and Ole Miss
At Home for the Holidays: Mississippi State and Vanderbilt

First power poll up tomorrow, stay tuned...