SEC PREVIEW: Auburn
What an Auburn Fan Thinks: “They can’t deny us this year. We will be partying in Phoenix. That’s right I said it, we are the best, #1, we will the national title this year. 12-0.”
What an Alabama Fan Thinks: “Good God, I hate that damn cow college. The barners’ll be lucky to win six games. Oh, I got your thumb right here too. ROLLLLLLLLLLLLL TIDE!!!!!!”
What Do I Think?: What to make of this team? I would say that Auburn is strong at running back, quarterback, and defensive back. Not as weak as some would have you think at offensive line. Weaker than probably is healthy at defensive line and linebacker. And very mysterious at receiver. Wow. Put that all together and what do you get?
I know that Auburn has to replace two offensive tackles, but they seem to plug new guys in and just keep going. This is probably due to the fact that they have one of the better offensive line coaches in the country. Hugh Nall was not a capable offensive coordinator, but he is worth every bit of money that he earns due to what he accomplishes with the offensive line. I really don’t have much indigestion about the offensive line.
The defensive line is another issue altogether. Actually, the entire front seven is an issue to me. There is talent abound at the defensive line and linebacker positions. Although a number of the starters this year lack experience, they were in the rotation last year. No, my concern comes down to something that is structural with Tuberville’s defenses. Auburn’s defense prizes speed and speed is great, but it means that you lack size where you need it the most. It is difficult to see any of the defensive lineman and linebackers that will start at Auburn making it at those positions in the NFL because they are too small. This size issue comes to the forefront in games where Auburn is matched up with a team that makes a determined effort to run straight at the defense and use the size of the offensive line to overpower the weaker defensive line. Of course Tuberville and Will Muschamp know this and they counter by using a variety of stunts to confuse the offense. However, what is not being give enough attention is the role Auburn’s offense plays in the entire equation. The defense's success is highly dependent on how many points the offense is able to generate. I'll admit I'm drawing conclusions from circumstantial evidence.
What is that evidence you ask? Well, Auburn’s speedy defense doesn’t have to stop the run if the offense is likely to be up 14 or 21 by halftime. In 2004, Auburn trailed only 5 quarters the entire year. Often Auburn was up 14 before the end of the first quarter. LSU was able to stop Auburn and was clearly the best team the Tigers faced that year. However, Alabama and Tennessee (in the SEC Championship) got close by employing a solid defense and a strong running game. As I pointed out here, the Wisconsin game was what convinced me of this theory last year. Brandon Cox had a horrible football game and the offense stalled creating an opportunity for Wisconsin to play to a strength, power running game. By no means is this a closed case on the defensive philosophy of speed and neither is it particularly revolutionary. How will it play out this season? Well, if I knew that, I wouldn’t be writing this blog. There will be more on this topic as the year goes along.
But I digress, this year’s Auburn squad will rely on power running (what else is new?) and mistake free play from the quarterback. Combine that with a defense that should be solid but needs to improve its ability to capitalize on mistakes (see more turnovers) and you have a solid year. Is Auburn free of all question marks, nope, but neither is anyone else in the SEC. Tuberville’s teams have shown a propensity to play one WTF? game each year. The WTF? game is on that they have no business losing and seem lethargic in doing so. While they avoiding that malaise in 2004, in 2002 it was Arkansas, in 2003 it was Georgia Tech and Ole Miss, and last year it was Georgia Tech again. This year it is likely going to be Washington State or Alabama. Given that historical gem, I think Auburn will go 10-2 and make the championship game if they beat LSU in September.
What an Alabama Fan Thinks: “Good God, I hate that damn cow college. The barners’ll be lucky to win six games. Oh, I got your thumb right here too. ROLLLLLLLLLLLLL TIDE!!!!!!”
What Do I Think?: What to make of this team? I would say that Auburn is strong at running back, quarterback, and defensive back. Not as weak as some would have you think at offensive line. Weaker than probably is healthy at defensive line and linebacker. And very mysterious at receiver. Wow. Put that all together and what do you get?
I know that Auburn has to replace two offensive tackles, but they seem to plug new guys in and just keep going. This is probably due to the fact that they have one of the better offensive line coaches in the country. Hugh Nall was not a capable offensive coordinator, but he is worth every bit of money that he earns due to what he accomplishes with the offensive line. I really don’t have much indigestion about the offensive line.
The defensive line is another issue altogether. Actually, the entire front seven is an issue to me. There is talent abound at the defensive line and linebacker positions. Although a number of the starters this year lack experience, they were in the rotation last year. No, my concern comes down to something that is structural with Tuberville’s defenses. Auburn’s defense prizes speed and speed is great, but it means that you lack size where you need it the most. It is difficult to see any of the defensive lineman and linebackers that will start at Auburn making it at those positions in the NFL because they are too small. This size issue comes to the forefront in games where Auburn is matched up with a team that makes a determined effort to run straight at the defense and use the size of the offensive line to overpower the weaker defensive line. Of course Tuberville and Will Muschamp know this and they counter by using a variety of stunts to confuse the offense. However, what is not being give enough attention is the role Auburn’s offense plays in the entire equation. The defense's success is highly dependent on how many points the offense is able to generate. I'll admit I'm drawing conclusions from circumstantial evidence.
What is that evidence you ask? Well, Auburn’s speedy defense doesn’t have to stop the run if the offense is likely to be up 14 or 21 by halftime. In 2004, Auburn trailed only 5 quarters the entire year. Often Auburn was up 14 before the end of the first quarter. LSU was able to stop Auburn and was clearly the best team the Tigers faced that year. However, Alabama and Tennessee (in the SEC Championship) got close by employing a solid defense and a strong running game. As I pointed out here, the Wisconsin game was what convinced me of this theory last year. Brandon Cox had a horrible football game and the offense stalled creating an opportunity for Wisconsin to play to a strength, power running game. By no means is this a closed case on the defensive philosophy of speed and neither is it particularly revolutionary. How will it play out this season? Well, if I knew that, I wouldn’t be writing this blog. There will be more on this topic as the year goes along.
But I digress, this year’s Auburn squad will rely on power running (what else is new?) and mistake free play from the quarterback. Combine that with a defense that should be solid but needs to improve its ability to capitalize on mistakes (see more turnovers) and you have a solid year. Is Auburn free of all question marks, nope, but neither is anyone else in the SEC. Tuberville’s teams have shown a propensity to play one WTF? game each year. The WTF? game is on that they have no business losing and seem lethargic in doing so. While they avoiding that malaise in 2004, in 2002 it was Arkansas, in 2003 it was Georgia Tech and Ole Miss, and last year it was Georgia Tech again. This year it is likely going to be Washington State or Alabama. Given that historical gem, I think Auburn will go 10-2 and make the championship game if they beat LSU in September.
Wow, I got through that without mentioning Will F'ing Herring. Now that is amazing.
Easily Win: Buffalo, Tulane, and Arkansas State
Should Win: Mississippi State and Ole Miss
Coin Toss: Washington State, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Alabama
Might Lose: LSU, Florida, and Georgia
Will Lose: None
Auburn Factoid You May Not Have Known: In the last three years, Auburn is 26-0 when scoring first and 5-8 when scoring second. You have to go back to 2001 to find a game where Auburn scored first and lost. It happened twice that year in losses to Arkansas and Syracuse.
posted by Buford T. Justice at 4:50 PM
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