Iron Bowl 2007

Since I will be taking the rest of the week off, we are going to hit a few items early this week. So, how about a little Iron Bowl Preview?

First, I’m not going to talk about the Nick Saban 9/11 press conference. Saban should have known better and the rest of us just need to grow up and quit being so damn sensitive about every little thing. I mean for the media types to get their panties in a wad when Saban compares losing to ULM to 9/11 and Pearl Harbor, but not when President Bush is called a Nazi really tells me that we can’t have a serious discussion in the country any longer. So, no the Nick Saban thing isn’t worth my time….there’s football to be played.

I have to honestly say this is the strangest Iron Bowl week I have been through. I don’t know if it’s because both teams are coming in off a loss and neither side really feels that confident, if it’s the bye week, or if it’s because Thanksgiving is tomorrow, but it just doesn’t feel like the Iron Bowl is Saturday. Maybe that changes once all the leftovers have hit the fridge tomorrow night and I can get focused on the game. Hopefully, my attitude isn’t what the team is experiencing. My guess is likely not, but you never know.

So what are the keys….

When Auburn has the ball……

No mistakes. Yeah, pretty evident. Brandon Cox has to be the solid performer that he normally is against Alabama. The running backs can’t just toss the ball to the Crimson Tide like it’s a radioactive hot potato. Look at the statistics, when Auburn holds on the football, plays solid clock controlling offense it wins. When there are turnovers, sloppy play, and a lot of three and outs, well you get Mississippi State, South Florida, and Georgia.

Davis, Tate, Lester, Stewart, and Fannin, oh my. Those names should be called a lot on Saturday. It is quite evident that the quarterback and wideouts can’t get on the same page. Regardless of who is to blame, Auburn’s strength on offense lies with the running backs. The goal for Al Borges is to figure out how to get these guys productive. Sure Lester is the go-to-guy, but all of them have strengths that need to be used to their fullest potential.

Stay outside of 7. Alabama hasn’t shown much ability to consistently drive the football down the field and score. They live and die by the big play. They will hit one or two on Saturday and that’s why it is important for Auburn to be ahead by a touchdown at all times. This means scoring touchdowns inside the red zone and controlling the clock.

When Alabama has the ball….

Limit big plays. See #3 above. Muschamp must stress to the defensive backs to be prepared to run. It would be nice if some of them would actually turn around and you know get an interception every once in awhile.

Pressure the quarterback. If Auburn allows Wilson to sit back there and pick them apart or throw long bombs down the field, the game will be over in a hurry. Groves, Coleman, and Carter need to be in the backfield. Keeping good contain and not overrunning things are key, but when they get Alabama in long yardage, they need to be getting to quarterback.

Be the difference. A big play on defense, an interception return or fumble return, will be huge in this game, particularly if it is deep in either team’s territory. Scoring will be at a premium and these types of plays will be crucial.

Intangibles….

Kickoff coverage. The kickoff coverage was one bright spot from the Georgia game. There were actual kicks going down near the goal line. Obviously, if Javier Arenas can’t go, that would be big. A return guy like that would have shredded Auburn.

Get up big, early. If Auburn jumps out to a 10 or 14 point lead, that could get Alabama to quit. Clearly, there are certain corners of this Alabama team that have had their fill with Nick Saban. I’ll go on record that some of those players will be on the field on Saturday. Facing a 14 point deficit might seem too high a mountain to climb especially for what they perceive to be an egotistical jerk.

There you have it, the keys to the game. So what will happen? I have a feeling that Auburn limits mistakes and big plays, gets out to a 10 point lead and tries to coast. Alabama scores late to make it interesting and the defense comes up big at the end. Hey that sounds like a typical Iron Bowl. War Eagle and Happy Thanksgiving.

Hold It! Hold It!

Hold up in that car nice gentlemen. I’m not exactly putting too much stock in the loss to Louisiana-Monroe. Embarrassing? Yes. Disgraceful? Sure. Funny as all wholly hell? No doubt. However, let’s not forget that this Alabama team is talented and this Auburn team is prone to bad plays, terrible decisions, and scratch your head play-calling. All of these will cause Auburn to get beat on Saturday.

What does the ULM loss mean? Nothing. Zero. Nada. I told Junior last week that I thought Auburn would be about a 5.5 point favorite against Alabama. They are a six point favorite. Let’s face it. Alabama wasn’t as good as they looked against Tennessee and LSU. But they aren’t as bad as they looked against ULM and FSU. Conversely, Auburn isn’t nearly as good as they looked against Florida and LSU. Nor are they as bad as they looked against Mississippi State, Georgia, and South Florida.

I would say the benchmark games for both schools are Arkansas for Alabama and Kansas State for Auburn. Both victories at home. Both down to the wire. Both featuring good defense and adequate offense. Nothing spectacular positive and negative. My sense is that Auburn is the better team and the better team normally wins the Iron Bowl. However, if Auburn as a team seriously thinks that they can roll into Jordan-Hare and win on Saturday night, they are mistaken. I really don’t think that is the case, but I guess we will find out around 7pm (Eastern) on Saturday.

Daily Double - Back in the Saddle Again

Junior and I discussed it and due to a little linkage from Jerry at Joe Cribb’s Car Wash, we are going to try and get this thing going again.

So, on with the fart jokes and half-naked women...

1. Auburn released their 2008 Football schedule and there was much rejoicing.
   
   The highlights include a trip to Morgantown for a little couch burning, LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia at home, the usually spate of SEC games, a cupcake to start off and a cupcake for homecoming, and the bi-annual owning of Bryant-Denny stadium. Not too shabby, Junior and I are definitely in for a little Morgantown action. Plus, Junior visited this gentleman’s establishment outside of Pittsburgh one night that I have to see.
   
   I’m a little miffed at the inclusion of Tennessee-Martin. Auburn has no business scheduling non-Division I-A (or FBS, whatever) teams. I understand it is difficult to put together a schedule and all, but hell call anyone but a Division I-AA team.
   
   The folks did put in two open dates, which I like. That first open date will feel great after that stretch of games. Let’s hope Kodi Burns shows big time improvement between now and September 6th.
   
   
2. Michael Lewis trots out another column about the inequities of big time college athletics. Okay, big time college football. In the course of his column, Lewis comes off sounding very elitist, which isn’t something I normally associate with him. Nevertheless, his argument boils down to, “Hey you Neanderthals that like college football, don’t you know you are somewhat racist and holding back poor black kids from getting their just due.” I’m generally not a fan of someone calling me racist. Particularly when they do it in a rather thinly veiled way like Lewis does with the following, “At this moment there are thousands of big-time college football players, many of whom are black and poor. They perform for the intense pleasure of millions of rabid college football fans, many of whom are rich and white.” Ahh yes, the old rich white people taking advantage of poor black people argument. I will grant Lewis that the average person supporting any given college football program is fairly well off and probably white. However, this is how they spend their entertainment dollars. Dollars, I might add, that most would consider well-earned.
   
   But let’s peel the onion back a little more on Lewis’ column. He, of course, argues that college football programs make millions of dollars without properly compensating the labor creating those dollars. As an example, he says that Vince Young gave a donation of his labor to the University of Texas, a donation Lewis estimates to be $5 million. For that $5 million, Vince Young has made about $8.42 million dollars in salary from the Tennessee Titans in two years and is set to make an additional $17.32 million in the next four years (this is only his guaranteed money and does not include endorsements). If you consider the time value of money, $5 million over the first three years and $25.74 million over the next six, gives a return of 50 percent. I think any of us would take that on our 401(k) accounts.
   
   Don’t think VY is a good example to use? Okay, let’s take the average scholarship football player. He attends four years of college with room and board for free. In exchange, he plays football. I’m certainly recognizing that the tradeoff isn’t fair. However, the opportunity to earn a degree is his for the taking and he has a support system that is designed to do all it can to assist him in doing so. The average differential between a college educated person and a high school educated person is about $21,000 per year (admittedly a two-year old study, we will put our intern right on conducting a more recent study...oh wait). Over a thirty-year period (assuming three percent growth in the differential each year) at a fairly modest five percent return, the present value of the education he receives is about $58,000. On a team with 85 scholarships, what does Lewis think the average “donation” is likely to be? Hard to say, but I think most of the scholarship football players are breaking even.
   
   The largest question to ask is how is this inequity that much different than a normal student? No one who attends college is getting compensated at the time for their labors and efforts. I wasn’t given a check for the work I was putting in for Auburn’s engineering school in the mid-90s. No, I put forth effort with the expectation that I would receive future compensation that would exceed the value of the time I was expending. And this doesn’t even count the fact that I was paying to go to school. Something a scholarship athlete doesn’t do. What, you don’t think school’s benefit from their student’s achievements? Let’s see, rankings, graduate and undergraduate research, alumni donations, etc., etc., etc. Are these worth as much each year as what the athletic department rakes in? No. But the potential future earnings of the average college student and a blue-chip athlete are a little different as well.