SEC Picks - Week #7

What a horrendous weekend for Junior and I. We are still recovering from the ass-reaming administered by Nutt’s Razorbacks. All the Preparation H in the world can’t reduce the swelling. And oh God it doesn’t get better this week as the Gators come to town. The damage done by the high school attack is baby shit compared to what Florida’s diverse attack is going to do.

At least we were decent on the picks last week. I posted an identical 5-2 record both straight up and against the spread. Junior was 4-3 both straight up and against the spread. The yearly totals are 26-5 straight up and 17-12 against the spread for me and 21-10 and 13-16 for Junior.


Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas – No line

Junior: Arkansas coming off a huge win at Auburn, steps out of conference for a week to take on the I-AA Redhawks. Hogs score early and often in this one. Hogs 41, Redhawks 7.

Buford: A week after raping and pillaging the Loveliest Village on the Plains, the Hogs turn their attention to Southeast Missouri State. At least there will be two high school offenses in this game. One employing a high school scheme and the other employing high school talent. Yes, that’s better than what Auburn could do last week. Arkansas 31, Southeast Missouri State 0.


Jacksonville State at Mississippi State – No line

Junior: Croom gets a much needed win. MSU 17, Gamecocks 6

Buford: Win #2 Coach Croom. Of course, you are 1-1 against Division I-AA opponents, so maybe it won’t be that easy. Mississippi State 28, Jacksonville State 7.


Kentucky at Louisiana State – Louisiana State favored by 26

Junior: LSU looks to rebound against the Cats in Death Valley. I expect LSU to run the table the rest of the season. Tigers 42, Cats 10

Buford: The initial thought is that LSU should cover this spread easily, but I really wonder how great the mood is in Baton Rouge right now. The Tigers’ season is essentially over. I doubt that both Auburn and Arkansas are going to lose 3 conference games. The scary thing is that Kentucky is good enough to beat LSU. They won’t, but they could. Louisiana State 28, Kentucky 14


Vanderbilt at Georgia – Georgia favored by 13

Junior: I honestly don’t know what to think of this game. I know that UGA’s defense is better than the 50-odd points they gave up last week. And the points they scored on UT last week were a bit misleading as well, as they had a put return and a kickoff return for touchdowns. As for Vandy, they seem incapable of playing two good games in a row. If I’m going to catch Daddy, I’m going to need to go out on a limb on games like this. Vanderbilt 14, Georgia 10.

Buford: I have been impressed with Vanderbilt so far this year. They killed themselves with turnovers last week against an Ole Miss team they should have beaten. This week they are facing a ticked off Georgia team that gave up 51 points to Tennessee last week. I have my doubts about how good Georgia’s defense is, but it is good enough to beat Vanderbilt. Georgia 24, Vanderbilt 10.


Mississippi at Alabama – Alabama favored by 14.5

Junior: Can someone please explain to me how a team can be beating Florida in the Swamp in the second half one week, but be trailing Duke in the second half the next week? Alabama 21, Mississippi 10.

Buford: This will be a typically Alabama game against a team that is inferior to them. The game will be close until about half way through the third quarter when Alabama just wears down the Rebels defense and wins by 10. Alabama 27, Mississippi 17.


Auburn at Florida – Auburn favored by 2.5

Junior: How good is Florida? Yes, they stomped LSU, but I’m still not sold on the Gators run defense against a team committed to the run. Although I have questions regarding the Gator defense, I know exactly what to think of the Auburn defense. As my daddy and I have discussed, Auburn’s defense simply does not match up well against physical teams that run the ball right up the middle. When Tebow’s in, he’ll pick up 7 or 8 yards a pop, just by running up the middle. I think when Leak is in, Auburn can at least contain him, as this is the type of offense that Tuberville has geared his defense to stop. On offense for Auburn, it simply comes down to can Kenny Irons run the football? If he gets 150 yards, I like Auburn’s chances. And as we said, I’m not sure Florida can stop a team committed to the run like Auburn. One last thing, CBS, why don’t you just change the telecast form “SEC Football” to “Shots of Tim Tebow’s father in an ugly hat.” Seriously, that hat was reject from the clubhouse of Caddyshack. Oh, and then tell again about The Bob Tebow Ministries. Of course, ESPN won’t let that happen. Yeah right and I will actually be Sheriff one day. Florida Tebows 14, Auburn 13. Is Tebow Spanish for “Bandit?”

Buford: This game comes down to Auburn’s offense versus Florida’s defense. Auburn’s offense hasn’t played anywhere near it’s potential. The lack of a playmaker opposite Courtney Taylor is killing the creativity that Borges has in his skull. Florida is winning because of its defense. Yes, I know the offense is leading the conference, but the difference between last year and this year is the defense. Reggie Nelson is a beast and deserves of all the man love he can get. The rest of his defensive mates swarm to the ball and create havoc wherever they go. This defense reminds me a lot of Auburn’s defense from 2004, decent size up front and speed all over the place.

Auburn’s defense was just killed last week. I think the matchups are a little better for the defense this week. Florida is not a pound it out running team. Although, they might go to that strategy after watching what Arkansas was able to do. Honestly though, Auburn was fortunate that LSU had running backs who enjoyed running sideways more than downfield and a coaching staff who seemed to be confused about the obvious weakness of the defense they were playing. I don’t know expect Florida to make similar mistakes. I think Tebow will play quite a bit and when in the game, he will run nearly 95% of the time. I know that sounds obvious, but he is simply the Gators’ best tailback, particularly with Wynn hobbled by a knee, and their best weapon to wear down Auburn’s defensive front. I expect Auburn to employ a 4-3 and try to get a lot of people into the backfield regardless of who is playing quarterback for the Gators. Leak doesn’t respond well to pressure and Tebow is not quick enough to break a play outside and get away from the speedy linebackers. Plus, making a young quarterback try to make a decision fast is usually a good thing for a defense.

Make no mistake, despite what Vegas says, Auburn is an underdog in this game. Florida is the better team, is on a roll, and should win. The only note of a caution for Florida is that they have had a tendency to start slow. If Auburn can get a 10 or 14 point lead (I really don’t know how they will do this, but…) and is able to run on Florida’s defense, the Gators are in trouble. For some reason, call it being a big homer or whatever, I think Auburn takes it. Yes, I’m wearing my Burnt Orange and Navy Blue glasses and drinking the Tiger Kool-Aid, but if you don’t pick your team then what kind of fan are you? Yeah, I’m talking to you Junior. Auburn 21, Florida 17.