SEC Bowl Picks

These picks are minus the Indy Bowl, because, well we forgot and minus Junior, because, well because I’m not sure where he is right now. Last I heard from him he was going snipe hunting with some idiot relatives we have in Louisiana. He might be dead, I don’t know. As they say…..the show must go on.

Before the picks, a word about bowl games. We hate them. Sure it’s football, which is never a bad thing and there really isn’t anything better than the orgy of football that takes place in the last three or four days of the year (of course that is when all the games were played in the last three or four days of the year instead of stretching into the second week of January). The gambler in us hates bowl games. It’s the same shade of our personality that dislikes the first two or three weeks of the NFL and college season. Trends fall apart and you never really know what you are going to get. A month off from playing can be very disruptive to a football team’s momentum at the end of the season or allows injured players that weren’t playing at full potential at the end of the season to heal and return. Then you factor in the desire to play the game and these things are a crapshoot. Please tell us what winning the Pioneer Pure Vision Bowl means. Umm, nothing really. The lone exception is the BCS Championship game. There is something to play for in that game, the mythical national title. But, let’s face it, most of the games pit two teams that don’t match up well and are usually not very good games. There are exceptions every year and there will be some this year, but on the whole the entire process is kind of overrated. Then again, we feel that the first weekend of the NCAA tournament is overrated too, so maybe you should just click on The Professional Cheerleader Blog and leave us.

When gambling on bowl games, we tend to do one of two things: 1) bet the money line if the numbers work in our favor or 2) tease lines to create obvious advantages. In the end, you are better off, just playing in a pick ‘em pool. However, duty calls, so onward…


Music City Bowl – Clemson at Kentucky – Clemson favored by 10.5

We really like Kentucky this year. This year’s team has been a refreshing change of pace to the years of mediocrity that have piled up. The smart money is for Clemson to blow them out of the water. Kentucky has struggled when facing a team with a decent defense and Clemson has been solid all year long. True, the Tigers haven’t faced a quarterback near the caliber of Andre Woodson, but they have allowed exactly 6 touchdowns through the air all year. Kentucky meanwhile will have to focus on stopping the run, something they don’t do very well. The motivation factor does favor Kentucky. This is a true reward for a program that doesn’t excel much on the football field. The stadium will be packed with Kentucky supporters and the kids will probably be generally excited. Clemson might look at the holiday trip to Nashville as a disappointment after being early ACC championship favorites. We like Clemson to win, but they probably won’t cover the 10.5.


Liberty Bowl – South Carolina at Houston – South Carolina favored by 5

Probably one of the better matchups of the bowl season. Houston has a bevy of playmakers at the skill positions and can score points in a flurry, but they have only played one defense that would be considered comparable to South Carolina and they only scored 13 points against Miami. South Carolina’s offense was stop and go all year long. At times they scored at will and showed flashes of the old Spurrier Fun and Gun. However, the offense does have a tendency to get behind in the down and distance department and that can create problems. While Houston might have an advantage in the skill player department, the game is won and lost in the trenches and South Carolina has the advantage there. We like the Gamecocks and we see them covering the 5 points fairly easily.


Chick-fil-A Bowl – Virginia Tech at Georgia – Virginia Tech favored by 2.5

The Bulldogs could not have hand picked a better matchup for their bowl game. Virginia Tech relies on its defense to win games and that is what has been Georgia’s calling card this year. Expect very low scoring (we are talking baseball game scoring) and a fairly quick pace. There really isn’t much else to say on this one save that the motivation factor favors Georgia who would like to finish the season strong to prove that they aren’t going away in the SEC. Not that anyone thought they would. This one is a pick ‘em to us, so we will go with Georgia to win and cover.

Outback Bowl – Tennessee at Penn State – Tennessee favored by 4

In the annual “Which is the Best Conference” competition, this game and the Capital One Bowl are the two that make or break the SEC every year. This game features two teams that won all the games they were supposed to win and none of the ones they weren’t. Both teams feature better than average defenses with offenses that can explode, but generally grind it out. Clearly, Tennessee has an advantage in the skill position players, but along the front lines, there is equality. That being said, Tennessee has an advantage in the motivation department. After a disappointing season last year, they are back in sunny Florida facing a good quality school with a chance to make a statement for next year. We like the Vols both as outright winners and to cover the 4 point spread.

Capital One Bowl – Arkansas at Wisconsin – Arkansas favored by 2.5

One guarantee on this game, it will be the fastest bowl game played this season. Both teams employ offenses of the running variety. We like the tailbacks in this game, where else do you find three high caliber running backs like PJ Hill, Darren McFadden, and Felix Jones? Yep, nowhere. We could go on and on about the stats and various scenarios, but it is simple, which team’s quarterback limits mistakes, manages the game, and completes enough passes on third down to keep drives alive? Our guess is Wisconsin wins back to back Capital One Bowl games and covers the number to boot.

Sugar Bowl – Louisiana State at Notre Dame – Louisiana State favored by 9.5

Everything points LSU’s way in this one. Notre Dame struggles when facing teams with speedy defenses and wide receivers. LSU has plenty of both. Notre Dame hasn’t beaten a team worth anything all year long. LSU is one of the best teams in the best conference in the country. Notre Dame is traveling a long way to get to New Orleans. LSU is playing in its backyard where the Superdome will be packed with rabid, crazed, drunk Cajuns. Clearly, LSU is going to wipe the Superdome field with the Irish, right? Right? Well, call us crazy, but we have been saying that there will be a surprise in either the Sugar Bowl or the Mythical National Championship game. We think it is here because LSU plays to the level of their competition and well, Les Miles. Notre Dame wins a high scoring affair that will probably be the best bowl game of the year and immediately crowns itself with next year’s national title.


Mythical National Title Game – Ohio State at Florida – Ohio State favored by 7.5

We think the number of analysts out there predicting a surprise by Florida is influenced by a reaction to last year’s premature crowning of Southern Cal prior to the Rose Bowl. Don’t get us wrong, we like Florida and feel that they are the only team that truly deserves to play Ohio State. We just don’t think they have enough offensively to get by what is a tough Ohio State defense. Plus, let’s look at the two guys playing the most important position on the field. Hmmm, Troy Smith…..hmmm Chris Leak……hmmmmm. We aren’t predicting a monster game for Smith because Heisman winners seem to struggle in their bowl games. However, Smith wins games for Ohio State. Leak just guides his team to victories and can lose games for them as well. Florida will play it close unlike their last visit to the desert, but in the end Ohio State will prove what has been proven all year, they are the best team in college football.


Cotton Bowl – Auburn at Nebraska – Auburn favored by 1.5

The season for our favorite team has been up and down. Home losses to Arkansas and Georgia have left a bitter taste in our mouths that can’t seem to overwhelm the joy of victories over LSU, Florida, and, of course, Alabama. However, we just don’t see the storyline of Auburn being upset about the Cotton Bowl. The matchup is to Auburn’s liking and quite honestly other than a BCS bowl, a holiday trip to Dallas is about as good as it was going to get. Surely facing Wisconsin or Penn State in Florida wouldn’t have been in the favor of a team whose defense has a penchant for allowing big plays on defense. Really, this is an interesting matchup of two teams that are identical images of each other. Both run similar offenses with quarterbacks that are steady and solid leaders who try to keep drives alive with their brains instead of their arm strength. Nebraska has chugged along with a pretty good record and has met expectations. Auburn’s record is close to what was expected, the disappointment is due more to Arkansas’ surprising run than Auburn’s failures.

Another interesting angle to this game is the month and a half layoff. The time off has allowed both Cox and Irons to get well. Neither was the player they were last year and Cox’s ineffectiveness drove the offense into a shell of its former self. By the end of the year, Irons wasn’t even the best back on the team. We are interested to see how both respond in the game. Also of interest is the wide receiver position. Someone better show us something to get us excited for next year. We are talking to you Rod Smith and Preache Rodriguez.

As goes the defense, as has gone the team. When the defense plays like crazed pitbulls, the entire team responds. When the defense is flat and gives up big plays on third down, the team plays like a bunch of girls. We have stated already that the matchup favors Auburn. Nebraska’s West Coast offense is predicated on short yardage passing with mixes of the run. It will look fairly similar to Auburn’s offense. We have been impressed with Zac Taylor. He seems to be a twin of Brandon Cox. Gutsy and effective, but lacking that big play arm. In short, we like him, he can play quarterback for us any day.

The motivation angle is important in the game between two fairly evenly matched teams. Both teams are trying to finish off somewhat exceptional seasons. Both teams are trying to generate excitement for next season. Nebraska is trying to show that it has made another step back under Callahan. Auburn is trying to erase the disappointment of a January failure last year and show that it is now firmly entrenched as a Top 10 program.

This should be very entertaining. We like Auburn to win by oh a touchdown or so. But hey we are biased, so don’t listen to us.